επεσε στα χερια μου ενα sector report της UBS απο το οποιο επισυναπτω τις εκτιμησεις τους για το κλαδο της τεχνολογιας αναμεσα στο οποιο κανουν ιδιατερη αναφορα στους κατασκευαστες lcd. 
"Global Technology - Outlook 2009
Outlook 2009
„ Modestly constructive on global tech; see at least 6-11% downside to EV We continue to estimate tech sales will decline at minimum 6-11% in '09
based on current global GDP forecasts, while historic EBIT downside in the 1990-91 recession suggests an earnings decline of 25-35%. Current tech
EV/sales is trading at trough levels, suggesting at least 6-11% downside to tech enterprise value.
„ Key themes: focus on fundamental stability; prefer less consumer exposure Given macroeconomic weakness, we believe investors are focused
on tech firms with strong balance sheets, FCF & earnings stability, recurring revenues, aggressive expense management. By tech end market, we
expect telco spending to show the most relative stability in '09, followed by Enterprise, & lastly consumer.
„ Tech tends to lead GDP recovery by ~1 quarter; M&A may resume in 09 Our analysis suggests tech as a whole tends to recover about one quarter
ahead of a turn in global GDP. Our economists forecasts GDP stability in the June quarter, suggest tech stocks could recover in late 1Q/early 2Q. We
also think M&A could resume in '09 as large caps look to acquire growth prior to fundamental recovery.
„ Global Sector Preferences Most preferred stocks are: Accenture, Oracle, Juniper, ASML, & MediaTek In terms of absolute performance, IT services
& software outperform the rest of tech during downturns ~70% of the time, hence we remain overweight these sectors. In recovery, semis & semi
equipment outperform ~60% of the time & we would look to get more constructing on these sectors prior to macro stabilization.
Global Software & Services - Outlook 2009
Outlook 2009
„ Expecting macro-driven softness to continue in 2009 While it is difficult to gauge the impact of the current macro economic dislocation on IT
spending, it is clear that the average CY09 consensus revenue and EPS expectations for global software companies are too high. For the IT services
segment, despite the slowdown, we don't expect to see negative industry growth in 2009 (as seen during the last downturn in 2001-03).
„ Likely themes for Software & Services in 2009 For software companies, we expect tough times for vendors with license revenue exposures, EBIT
margins to be under pressure, F/X tailwinds to turn into headwinds for US domiciled vendors and margin defensibility for European software names.
For IT services, project sales cycles, hiring environment, impact of the new Obama administration would be key themes for US based companies,
while vendor consolidation and M&A activity are likely themes for Indian vendors.
„ Upside or downside surprises We are forecasting CY09 sales and EPS growth of 3% and 4% versus consensus of 9% and 12%. We also expect
margins to contract in '09 versus consensus expectations of expansion. While the risk might appear that we may have cut too far, we actually are more
concerned that margins could come in below our forecast. For India-based IT vendors, further deterioration in the macro economic environment or
bankruptcy of large clients could pose a significant downside risk.
„ Global Sector Preferences Buy Ideas: Accenture, CACI International, Cognizant, Harris Corp, Infosys, Intuit, Microsoft, Novell, Oracle, SAP,
Temenos and Visa. Sell Ideas: Adobe, ADP, Autodesk, HCL Technologies, Logica, Paychex, Salesforce.com, VMware
TFT-LCD - Outlook 2009
Facing demand issues for the first time
„ Summary The LCD industry is at risk from major oversupply in 2009. While oversupply is not new, the LCD industry also faces uncertainties on
demand. As LCD panel demand slows to 8% growth in 2009E compared with 19% in 2008E, we expect LCD panel makers to reduce supply growth by
cutting production and delaying new capacity. We expect only the strongest makers in the LCD supply chain to emerge from the downturn in good
shape.
„ What are the likely key themes for 2009? We believe the key themes in 2009 will be: 1) industry consolidation, in particular balance sheet risks and
the importance of captive customers; 2) cost reductions, with outsourcing of low-cost TV model manufacturing, and increased R&D/commercialisation
of new cost-saving technology, such as AM-OLED; and 3) the search for a new growth area, possibly thin-film solar.
„ What may surprise on the upside or downside? For downside risk, we think demand growth from China and other emerging markets could be
worse than expected, if slowing GDP growth and weak stock markets weigh on consumer spending. LCD TV demand might surprise on the upside if
falling TV prices trigger price elasticity.
„ Global Sector Preferences Our preferred stocks are LG Display (LGD) and Best Buy. As leaders in market share, with strong balance sheets, we
expect them to weather the downturn and benefit from a sector recovery. Depressed valuations are reflecting the downturn, in our view. Our least
preferred stocks are Chi Mei Optoelectronic for balance sheet risk, and Asahi Glass for its weak position among glass makers.
"Global Technology - Outlook 2009
Outlook 2009
„ Modestly constructive on global tech; see at least 6-11% downside to EV We continue to estimate tech sales will decline at minimum 6-11% in '09
based on current global GDP forecasts, while historic EBIT downside in the 1990-91 recession suggests an earnings decline of 25-35%. Current tech
EV/sales is trading at trough levels, suggesting at least 6-11% downside to tech enterprise value.
„ Key themes: focus on fundamental stability; prefer less consumer exposure Given macroeconomic weakness, we believe investors are focused
on tech firms with strong balance sheets, FCF & earnings stability, recurring revenues, aggressive expense management. By tech end market, we
expect telco spending to show the most relative stability in '09, followed by Enterprise, & lastly consumer.
„ Tech tends to lead GDP recovery by ~1 quarter; M&A may resume in 09 Our analysis suggests tech as a whole tends to recover about one quarter
ahead of a turn in global GDP. Our economists forecasts GDP stability in the June quarter, suggest tech stocks could recover in late 1Q/early 2Q. We
also think M&A could resume in '09 as large caps look to acquire growth prior to fundamental recovery.
„ Global Sector Preferences Most preferred stocks are: Accenture, Oracle, Juniper, ASML, & MediaTek In terms of absolute performance, IT services
& software outperform the rest of tech during downturns ~70% of the time, hence we remain overweight these sectors. In recovery, semis & semi
equipment outperform ~60% of the time & we would look to get more constructing on these sectors prior to macro stabilization.
Global Software & Services - Outlook 2009
Outlook 2009
„ Expecting macro-driven softness to continue in 2009 While it is difficult to gauge the impact of the current macro economic dislocation on IT
spending, it is clear that the average CY09 consensus revenue and EPS expectations for global software companies are too high. For the IT services
segment, despite the slowdown, we don't expect to see negative industry growth in 2009 (as seen during the last downturn in 2001-03).
„ Likely themes for Software & Services in 2009 For software companies, we expect tough times for vendors with license revenue exposures, EBIT
margins to be under pressure, F/X tailwinds to turn into headwinds for US domiciled vendors and margin defensibility for European software names.
For IT services, project sales cycles, hiring environment, impact of the new Obama administration would be key themes for US based companies,
while vendor consolidation and M&A activity are likely themes for Indian vendors.
„ Upside or downside surprises We are forecasting CY09 sales and EPS growth of 3% and 4% versus consensus of 9% and 12%. We also expect
margins to contract in '09 versus consensus expectations of expansion. While the risk might appear that we may have cut too far, we actually are more
concerned that margins could come in below our forecast. For India-based IT vendors, further deterioration in the macro economic environment or
bankruptcy of large clients could pose a significant downside risk.
„ Global Sector Preferences Buy Ideas: Accenture, CACI International, Cognizant, Harris Corp, Infosys, Intuit, Microsoft, Novell, Oracle, SAP,
Temenos and Visa. Sell Ideas: Adobe, ADP, Autodesk, HCL Technologies, Logica, Paychex, Salesforce.com, VMware
TFT-LCD - Outlook 2009
Facing demand issues for the first time
„ Summary The LCD industry is at risk from major oversupply in 2009. While oversupply is not new, the LCD industry also faces uncertainties on
demand. As LCD panel demand slows to 8% growth in 2009E compared with 19% in 2008E, we expect LCD panel makers to reduce supply growth by
cutting production and delaying new capacity. We expect only the strongest makers in the LCD supply chain to emerge from the downturn in good
shape.
„ What are the likely key themes for 2009? We believe the key themes in 2009 will be: 1) industry consolidation, in particular balance sheet risks and
the importance of captive customers; 2) cost reductions, with outsourcing of low-cost TV model manufacturing, and increased R&D/commercialisation
of new cost-saving technology, such as AM-OLED; and 3) the search for a new growth area, possibly thin-film solar.
„ What may surprise on the upside or downside? For downside risk, we think demand growth from China and other emerging markets could be
worse than expected, if slowing GDP growth and weak stock markets weigh on consumer spending. LCD TV demand might surprise on the upside if
falling TV prices trigger price elasticity.
„ Global Sector Preferences Our preferred stocks are LG Display (LGD) and Best Buy. As leaders in market share, with strong balance sheets, we
expect them to weather the downturn and benefit from a sector recovery. Depressed valuations are reflecting the downturn, in our view. Our least
preferred stocks are Chi Mei Optoelectronic for balance sheet risk, and Asahi Glass for its weak position among glass makers.